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The SCO at 25: From Regional Security Mechanism to Platform for a Multipolar Eurasia

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Dr Aamna Khan

Analysis Series

Analysis/0073/August/2026/London-Dialogue. 31 August 2026

Author: By Dr Aamna Khan

As the 25th anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) draws near, its development provides a crucial insight into how world politics are evolving. The SCO Summit, which will take place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31 to September 01, 2026, will bring the organisation's leaders together to commemorate 25 years since its official founding in 2001. The anniversary is more than just a time to reflect on the organisation's past. It offers a chance to evaluate the extent to which the SCO has transcended its initial mandate for regional security and the potential role it could play in an increasingly multipolar Eurasia.

The organisation’s size has expanded immensely over the years. Over 3.4 billion people are represented by the 10 member states of the SCO, which span an area of about 36 million square kilometres. The organisation's own statistics show that its members contribute more than 15 per cent of international trade and around 25 per cent of the world's GDP. However, the SCO's influence goes beyond its official membership. In addition to nations such as Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, its network includes 15 dialogue partners, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Bahrain, and Kuwait. This growth shows that the SCO is more than just a security forum for Central Asia; it is now a venue for nations in Eurasia and the larger Middle East to discuss political, economic, security, and humanitarian issues.

This shift is relevant since the SCO's significance extends beyond its membership size. What was initially set out as a means of building trust and ensuring regional security has evolved into a more comprehensive institutional structure linking Russia, the Middle East, East Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia. Counterterrorism, trade, connectivity and transportation, energy, digitalisation, information security, development, culture, education, and diplomatic cooperation are now included on its agenda.

Therefore, the main question at its 25th anniversary is not whether the SCO's increased size has made it stronger. It questions whether the organisation has created a new strategic goal. Evidence points to the SCO increasingly serving as a platform for diverse Eurasian states to negotiate an international context marked by increased geopolitical competition, strategic autonomy, and power diffusion.

From Border Security to Regional Security

The Shanghai Five, founded in 1996 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, laid the groundwork for the SCO. Its initial aim was quite narrow: confidence-building, military transparency, and border management following the Soviet Union’s demise. The creation of the SCO in 2001, with Uzbekistan’s inclusion, represented a significant shift. The organisation was founded at a period when Central Asia was facing several security concerns, including terrorism, separatism, extremism, organised crime, and Afghanistan-related unrest. Security cooperation thus underpinned the SCO’s early institutional growth. A long-term framework for collaboration against terrorism, separatism, and extremism was established in 2002 with the establishment of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). The organisation’s operations later included cooperation between security agencies, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism drills.

Unlike NATO, the SCO was never designed as a collective-defence alliance. Its security model instead emphasises sovereignty, non-interference, consultation and cooperation against shared transnational threats. This distinction remains central to understanding why the SCO has been able to accommodate states with competing strategic interests without requiring them to adopt a common foreign policy.

Expansion and the Transformation of the SCO

The growth of the SCO has been arguably the most significant event in its history. In 2017, Pakistan and India became full members. In 2023, Iran joined, and in 2024, Belarus attained full membership. Hence, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus, and the four Central Asian republics are now united under this organisation. The geopolitical nature of the SCO has been significantly changed by this growth.

China, Russia, and Central Asia were the organisation’s original focal points. Major nations with interests across South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe make up today’s SCO. Consequently, it is far more indicative of the larger geopolitical environment in Eurasia.

However, expansion has also led to a dilemma. Due to the increasing diversity of its members, SCO has grown in strategic importance on the one hand but made coordination more challenging on the other. For instance, unresolved territorial and strategic conflicts exist between China and India; Pakistan and India remain rivals; and despite their close cooperation, China and Russia may not share the same goals in Central Asia. While Central Asian nations aim to keep space for manoeuvre amid rival external powers, Iran has its own regional ambitions.

Therefore, referring to the SCO as a unified geopolitical bloc is misleading. The organisation does not require its members to agree on all significant international issues. Instead, it provides an institutional structure in which states with differing objectives can maintain discussion, identify areas of shared interest and cooperate without compromising their strategic autonomy. This adaptability can be considered one of the SCO’s most valuable virtues.

From Security Organisation to Wider Eurasian Platform

The SCO’s objectives have expanded beyond traditional security cooperation, which may be the most evident indication of its growth. The organisation has expanded into trade, transportation, energy, finance, digitalisation, environmental cooperation, education, and cultural exchange, but security is still of utmost importance. The SCO Development Strategy to 2035 and agreements creating an Anti-Drug Centre and a Universal Centre for Countering Challenges and Threats to the Security of Member States were accepted by member states at the 2025 Tianjin Summit, demonstrating this more expansive approach. In addition to member and partner governments, organisations such as the United Nations (UN), ASEAN, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Economic Cooperation Organization were present at the subsequent SCO Plus meeting. The significance of these changes resides in the SCO’s expanding role within a larger network of overlapping Eurasian organisations, not in any attempt to replace them.

One area where this larger impact is especially evident is connectivity. Transportation corridors connecting China, Russia, South Asia, the Caucasus, Europe, and the Middle East now strategically intersect Central Asia. India is creating alternate routes connecting South Asia and Central Asia, China is pushing the Belt and Road Initiative, Russia is in favour of greater Eurasian integration, and Central Asian nations want to diversify their trade channels and lessen their reliance on any one outside force. These projects are not within the SCO’s control, nor is it required to be. It is valuable because it offers a diplomatic framework that allows conflicting connectivity initiatives to coexist and potentially enhance one another.

The same idea is increasingly applicable to finance. In May 2026, SCO finance ministers and central bank governors discussed financial stability, the expanded use of national currencies in mutual settlements, and the digitalisation of state finances, while talks to establish an SCO Development Bank were already underway. A second consultation in June brought together representatives from 28 nations, suggesting that financial cooperation is progressing beyond generic pronouncements and toward institutional design.

This expanded goal does not imply that the SCO is transforming into an integrated economic or political union. Rather, it symbolises its progressive transition into a larger Eurasian platform where security, connectivity, finance, and development intersect. Its capacity to accommodate many national projects without asking members to adhere to a single integration model may prove to be one of its most significant assets in an increasingly fragmented regional order.

The SCO’s Expanding Reach into the Middle East and Gulf

The SCO’s increasing involvement in the Middle East and the Gulf further demonstrates that its function has expanded beyond its initial regional borders. In 2021, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt joined as dialogue partners; in 2022, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE followed. In addition to strengthening ties with China, Russia, and other Asian countries, their involvement has opened new pathways between the SCO and a region that has historically maintained close security and economic links with Western powers. This should not be interpreted as alignment with the SCO or a departure from existing partnerships with the West. Rather, it reflects a broader trend towards multiple institutional and diplomatic options, as states seek to diversify their external relationships and avoid dependence on a single geopolitical framework. For instance, Qatar’s experience in environmental protection, desertification, new energy, and sustainable development was specifically highlighted as a potential basis for practical cooperation with SCO members during the July 2024 SCO Green Development Forum in Qingdao.

Similarly, at the SCO’s Council of Heads of Government summit in November 2025, delegates from Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, and Kuwait took part in talks on trade, economic, and cultural-humanitarian cooperation alongside SCO member states. Egypt’s relationship with the organisation has also become more structured. In August 2025, SCO officials met in Cairo to discuss the implementation of Egypt’s dialogue-partner memorandum and the roadmap to enhance cooperation among SCO members and dialogue partners.

These advancements are significant because they show that SCO’s external network is more than just symbolic. Its dialogue partners are becoming increasingly integrated into real-world areas of collaboration, ranging from economic and cultural exchanges to environmental policy and humanitarian problems. These states also continue to have close ties with Washington, European nations, and other international organisations. Therefore, institutional diversification, rather than ideological agreement, is what makes the SCO’s growing network of partners significant. In this way, the SCO is joining a broader, more integrated Eurasian diplomatic landscape where involvement is about creating strategic leeway rather than picking sides.

The SCO and Multipolarity

The SCO’s evolution raises a broader question: what does its transformation tell us about the changing structure of international politics? The organisation increasingly presents itself as part of a wider shift towards a multipolar international system. At their July 2026 meeting, SCO foreign ministers maintained that the influence of Global South countries and new centres of economic and political power was growing and reaffirmed their support for a more representative international order based on sovereign equality, multilateralism and respect for different civilisations. Yet the SCO’s contribution to multipolarity is better understood through the way its members use the organisation than through official statements alone.

The SCO should therefore not be characterised simply as an “anti-Western bloc”. Perhaps the most obvious example is India. In addition to maintaining a strategic partnership with the US, fortifying ties with the European Union (EU), and participating in the Quad alongside the US, Japan, and Australia, New Delhi is a full member of the SCO and participates in its security and diplomatic mechanisms. India’s involvement in these organisations shows that it is not necessary to choose between the Western and non-Western camps to engage with the SCO. Rather, India employs distinct institutional platforms for distinct strategic goals: the SCO offers a platform for interaction with China, Russia, and the Central Asian republics, while the Quad supports its Indo-Pacific goals.

The organisation’s internal dynamics reinforce this point. China and Russia cooperate closely within the SCO, particularly on regional security and their shared preference for a more multipolar international system, but their interests are not identical. India and China remain strategic competitors and face unresolved territorial disputes, yet both are active members of the SCO. India and Pakistan likewise maintain longstanding political and security tensions while participating in the same organisation. Iran has its own regional priorities, while the Central Asian states seek to maintain relationships with multiple external powers rather than becoming dependent on any single one. The continued functioning of the SCO despite these differences demonstrates that its model of cooperation does not depend on geopolitical uniformity.

The India-China relationship provides a particularly revealing example. The 2020 Galwan Valley confrontation, which resulted in deaths on both sides, produced the most serious deterioration in bilateral relations in decades. Yet India and China continued to participate in SCO meetings and summits. The organisation did not resolve their border dispute, nor was it designed to do so. Its significance lies instead in maintaining an institutional channel through which the two countries can continue to interact alongside other Eurasian powers, even when bilateral relations are strained. This illustrates that the SCO may be more effective at managing strategic differences than resolving them.

India–Pakistan relations offer a similar, if more limited, example. Despite longstanding political and security tensions, both have remained within the SCO since joining in 2017. The organisation does not resolve their bilateral disputes but provides a multilateral setting in which rivalry does not eliminate opportunities for dialogue and limited cooperation.

The position of the Central Asian states further illustrates the logic of multipolarity. Kazakhstan’s long-standing multi-vector foreign policy, for example, illustrates how a Central Asian state can engage simultaneously with China, Russia, Europe and other external partners while using regional institutions such as the SCO to preserve diplomatic room for manoeuvre. Rather than choosing a single geopolitical patron, they can use overlapping institutions to diversify economic partnerships, security relationships and diplomatic options.

This pattern reflects a flexible form of multipolarity. States increasingly participate in several institutions simultaneously, cooperate with different powers on different issues and avoid treating international politics as a choice between two fixed camps. The SCO is particularly suited to this environment because it does not force its members to adopt a common foreign policy or establish a collective-defence commitment. Its members can disagree on bilateral disputes while continuing to cooperate where their interests overlap.

The SCO is therefore less like a traditional military alliance and more like a platform for managing diversity within a multipolar system. Its importance does not necessarily lie in replacing Western-led institutions or constructing a single alternative bloc. Rather, it provides another layer of regional governance in which major, middle, and smaller powers can interact on the basis of sovereignty, flexibility, and selective cooperation.

The challenge, however, is whether this flexibility can generate meaningful outcomes. An organisation capable of accommodating differences can remain inclusive, but excessive differences can also limit its ability to act collectively. The SCO’s next phase will therefore test whether its diverse membership is ultimately an institutional strength or a constraint on deeper cooperation. Its ability to maintain dialogue, expand practical cooperation and manage strategic competition may determine whether the organisation becomes a durable pillar of a multipolar Eurasian order or remains primarily a forum for political consultation.

The Limits and Future of the SCO

The SCO’s biggest strength is its ability to accommodate states with divergent interests, which is also its main weakness. India and China remain strategic competitors; India and Pakistan continue to confront severe political issues; China and Russia have overlapping but not identical interests in Central Asia; and the smaller Central Asian governments strive to maintain their autonomy in the face of conflicting external forces. Such diversity complicates consensus and hampers the organisation’s ability to adopt shared positions on important geopolitical matters. Unlike NATO, the SCO has no collective defence commitment, and unlike the EU, it lacks supranational institutions capable of making enforceable decisions. As a result, collaboration is strongly reliant on consensus and political will.

Additionally, there is a gap between the SCO’s growing agenda and its ability to achieve it. Although the organisation has implemented ambitious strategies pertaining to security, connectivity, finance, development, and digital cooperation, it is still difficult to turn declarations and agreements into long-term, quantifiable results. Because of members’ quite different economic structures, development priorities, and foreign partnerships, economic integration is challenging. In a similar vein, the SCO’s track record indicates that it is better suited to managing divisions than to settling significant interstate disputes, even though it can promote discussion on regional security. The ongoing hostilities between India and China and between India and Pakistan serve as an example of the organisation’s limitations when fundamental national interests collide.

Yet these limitations should not necessarily be viewed as evidence of failure. The SCO was never designed to eliminate strategic differences among its members. Its value lies precisely in providing a framework in which countries with competing interests can continue to cooperate where their interests overlap. The more important question for the next 25 years is therefore whether the organisation can convert this flexibility into tangible outcomes without sacrificing the inclusiveness that sustains it.

Three broad trajectories are possible. The SCO could remain primarily a diplomatic forum, useful for political consultation and security dialogue but limited in practical integration. It could alternatively deepen functional cooperation in areas such as transport, energy, finance, trade and digitalisation, giving the organisation greater practical relevance. The most plausible trajectory lies between these two: the emergence of the SCO as a flexible multipolar institution.

Under this model, the SCO would not become a Eurasian NATO or a supranational union. Instead, it would serve as one of several overlapping institutions through which Eurasian states manage strategic competition, develop practical cooperation and preserve room for independent decision-making. This would be consistent with the organisation’s evolution over the past 25 years. Its strength has never been ideological unity; it has been its capacity to create common ground among states that do not necessarily share the same strategic outlook.

The challenge now is to ensure that flexibility does not become institutional paralysis. If the SCO can translate its expanding membership, partnerships and agenda into sustained cooperation while preserving its ability to accommodate differences, its next 25 years could see it emerge as an important pillar of a more plural and interconnected Eurasian order.

Conclusion

At 25, the SCO stands at a point where its significance can no longer be measured simply by its origins as a Central Asian security mechanism or by the size of its membership. Its expansion across Eurasia, growing engagement with the Middle East and Gulf, and widening agenda demonstrate an organisation that has adapted to a changing international environment. Yet its evolution is not towards becoming another military alliance or a unified geopolitical bloc. Its more distinctive role lies in bringing together states whose interests often diverge but whose need for dialogue and selective cooperation is increasingly shared.

The SCO’s greatest significance, therefore, may lie in how it accommodates multipolarity rather than in how it challenges the West. India can participate in the SCO while maintaining its partnerships with the US and other Western powers; Central Asian states can deepen ties with China and Russia while preserving relations with Europe and other external actors; and Gulf states can engage with the SCO without abandoning their longstanding Western relationships. This pattern reflects an international system in which strategic autonomy increasingly depends not on choosing one side, but on maintaining the ability to work across several institutional and geopolitical networks.

 

The organisation nevertheless faces a fundamental test. Its diversity can sustain inclusiveness, but it can also constrain collective action. Its expanding agenda creates opportunities for practical cooperation but also raises questions about implementation and institutional capacity. The next 25 years will therefore determine whether the SCO can convert its considerable geopolitical reach into meaningful and sustained cooperation.

Its future should not be judged by whether it becomes a Eurasian NATO or an alternative to the Western-led order. A more revealing measure is whether it can become an effective institution for managing competition, preserving dialogue and enabling cooperation in a fragmented Eurasia. If it can do so, the SCO’s achievement at 50 may not be that it replaced an existing order, but that it helped make a multipolar one.

Picture of Dr Aamna Khan

Dr Aamna Khan