Energy Security Begins at Sea

The slogan above is not only descriptive, but it is also educative: energy security begins at sea. It tells the story of fossil fuel tankers passing through oceans and narrow straits which define the energy future of the globe, dependent on waterways. Pakistan is also linked to global trade through maritime channels which keep our economy running. The fact that the landlocked mentality does not care about the sea would not reduce its significance. It only makes us unprepared and short-sighted. Therefore, energy problems of Pakistan do not begin with the production and distribution of power; they start with how it arrives.

The energy debate in Pakistan has been stuck in a rut. We discuss megawatts, tariffs and losses of transmission as how energy is generated and used on our side. Currently, Pakistan is not only dealing with an energy crisis, but it is dealing with successive maritime dependency of oil imports directly related to energy production. All of the imported oil that we use in our cars and every barrel of liquefied natural gas we use in our factories take their initial steps of shipment in open waters. 

As per estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Pakistan will be importing more than 80-85% of its crude oil requirements and an augmenting share of natural gas in the form of LNG for the years 2025-26. As per the Economic Survey of Pakistan Report 2024-2025, Pakistan is almost completely dependent on imported oil. Daily oil (combining all derivatives) consumption of Pakistan is approximately 479,218 barrels per day, whereas oil production stands at approx. 81,426 barrels per day. Pakistan is estimated to hold 243 million barrels of proven oil reserves as of 2025. 

The energy lifeline of Pakistan traverses through one of the most tactically sought-after sea routes in the world before reaching our harbours. And in the middle of this trip there is a small yet critical passage known as the Strait of Hormuz. Up to 20 million barrels of oil products pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, which accounts for approx. 20-21% of the world’s components of petroleum liquids as per the 2025 report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Any interruption due to any reason, either geopolitical antagonism or military build-up, does not sit well. This sends jolts around the globe like a virtual earthquake affecting global shipping, oil prices and stock markets and causes inflation.

It remains an unpleasant fact that the energy security of Pakistan is moulded much more by the seas than by the land. This reliance corresponding to a so far mute weakness was never observed, nor felt; before the current US/Israel – Iran conflict. This is not any occasional logistical interruption of having a delayed tanker reaching Pakistan but an emblematic cause of fuel shortages, price surges and consequent strain on a growing economy. Yet, this nautical aspect of energy security is mostly seen on the fringes of debate. 

In contrast to the bigger economies, there is a lack of larger strategic reserves in Pakistan, whereby notebook oil inventory sits below 30 days of national consumption. This is a small portion of the 90 days of the country-wide energy guarantees recommended by the IEA. Strategic petroleum reserves are never purely economic instruments, but safeguards against risk to national SLOCs. The issue of diversifying the source of imports is not only an issue of cost efficiency but also developing a redundancy against geopolitical risks.

We are reminded of power plants, gas lines that run through the provinces, or even city-to-city transmission lines. However, due to our landlocked orientation, we seldom consider ports or maritime oil infrastructure from an energy security perspective. Karachi, which handles almost all of Pakistan’s oil imports, is a choke point which needs further weightage in calculating the energy security matrix. The development of Gwadar Port with oil landing and storage infrastructure can lessen strain on Karachi and can offer redundancy and resilience to disruptions. 

In calculating the energy security, another important aspect is linkage to the hinterland, i.e., transmission means availability. These can be storage plants, pipelines and logistic networks via rail or road connectivity. This aspect is vulnerable to the internal situation of the country and political instability, prone to disruptions due to unrest or administrative manoeuvres. Thus, these calculations must be borne in mind when deriving a policy narrative or preparing for any upcoming comprehensive energy security paradigm. 

The issue of maritime security is collective in nature. Sea lanes are common areas open to international usage, and the stability of sea lanes is achieved through collaboration rather than sole capability. In the case of Pakistan, this encompasses involvement of regional partners, joint security operations and acknowledgement of the reason why diplomacy at sea is equally significant to diplomacy on land. Pakistan’s commitment to peace at sea is already evident through its participation in the combined task forces of CTF-150 and CTF-151. Also, Pakistan conducts its “Regional Maritime Security Patrol (RMSP)” to dictate order at sea and ensure sea lines of communication are open and available to not only Pakistan but also the region and the world for a safer passage. 

Pakistan needs to start considering energy security as an external challenge in strategic calculus, rather than dealing with it as an internal or domestic affair. The recent conflict of the US/Israel and Iran, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has demonstrated amicably that the energy security of any nation begins at sea. This necessitates transformation of policy priorities. Thus, securing sea lanes of communication takes a primary spot in scheming national energy security. Our comprehension of energy security will still be wanting until that story enters our national discourse.

It is time for us to accept an unpleasant fact: energy vulnerability cannot be resolved aptly at the domestic level. It is influenced by global SLOCs, which are prone to disruptions and can be remodelled according to the prevailing geopolitical scenario. Energy policy needs to take into account national foreign policy, statistics of demand and supply along with reserves, climate planning and maritime strategy. It needs to foresee not only the scarcity model at hand but also plausible national inconveniences and geopolitical risks.

Komal Shabbir is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), Pakistan where she contributes to research on maritime policy, security, and regional strategic affairs.