Climate-Change Impacts on Blue Economy

Climate change is one of the existential threats to all species on earth. It has already impacted most regions of the world, albeit in a more severe way in coastal regions which are home to marine ecosystems. Rising sea temperatures cause fish stocks to move toward cooler poles and leave nations in the tropics with no fish on their hooks. It has long been viewed as a secondary issue – ocean acidification, resulting in coral bleaching and fish population drops. Meanwhile, a rise in sea levels, coupled with the growing strength of storm surges, is endangering ports, processing plants and tourism resorts that comprise the physical assets of the blue economy. Due to these changes, there has been a lot of concern that has been raised about the continued health of oceans, which is vital to the blue economy.

The interaction between the blue economy and climate change is two-way: on one hand, the blue economy has elements that are not sustainable and cause climate change and a rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; on the other hand, climate change caused by economic activity influences the quality of coastal tourism, the quality of oceans and people living in coastal regions.

Some of these unsustainable areas of the blue economy contribute actively to climate change. Carbon-intensive activities of offshore oil and gas mining, shipping and industrial fishing produce high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas the emissions produced by these activities do not vanish; they come back to pollute the same resource they originated. Since the oceans receive about 30% of all manmade emissions of carbon dioxide and more than 90% of surplus heat produced by greenhouse gases, this results in marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHWs are known as spells of exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, which last several days to months. This has been recorded by Garrabou et al. (2022) and also confirmed by the IPCC that MHWs have increased two times since 1982 in frequency, leading to continued mass deaths in marine organisms. During the 2015–2019 period, the Mediterranean Sea experienced exceptional thermal conditions, resulting in the onset of 5 consecutive years of widespread mass mortality events across the basin. Additionally, Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising, with acceleration in recent decades due to increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, as well as continued glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion.  

In this context, let us not forget South Asia, where the Himalayas are seen to the north and the Indian Ocean is seen to the south – it is especially susceptible and vulnerable to climate change because of its tropical and subtropical location. Unfortunately, the marine ecosystem of Pakistan, comprising the Arabian Sea and coastline measuring 1,046 kilometres, is under threat of global warming and climate change. The coast of the Arabian Sea has a great variety of marine organisms, such as mollusks, echinoderms, cnidarians, crustaceans and marine mammals. Other species, including octopuses, sea stars, corals, crabs and dolphins, are important in ecosystem balance, nutrient cycling and fisheries productivity. Particularly important in habitat formation are the coral-forming cnidarians around islands such as Churna and Astola. Together, these populations maintain marine biodiversity, and they are also important indicators of the health, resilience and ecological stability of Pakistan’s coastal waters. Besides, mangroves of the Indus Delta and coral reefs of Astola Island are also important to biodiversity, coastal protection and fisheries but are facing threats due to climate change. 

In addition to this, the majority of iconic and ecologically important components of Pakistani marine ecosystem– sharks and rays – are increasingly being threatened by unsustainable fishing activities, especially in shark landing sites like Karachi Fish Harbour, Korangi, Sonmiani and Gwadar. 85% of landed species of sharks on the IUCN Red List are either Critically Endangered (CR), Endangered (EN), Vulnerable (VU) or Near Threatened (NT). Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) lists nine species of sharks and states that a regulation of trade must prevent population loss. Eight of these are also included in the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) in its Appendix II, meaning that they must be taken care of internationally. Climate-related effects of marine disruptions are especially impactful on communities in Sindh and Balochistan, where fishing, aquaculture and coastal tourism are important income streams among many individuals. The modification in the patterns of fish migration has already caused a reduction of catches among small-scale fishers, causing a growing economic uncertainty in the Indus Delta villages and the Makran coast.

Therefore, these contemporary issues demand ocean governance, which is already debated at the international level. The importance of the oceans and coastal ecosystems in climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience was explicitly identified in the outcome of the first global stock-take at COP28. There is a growing policy and financial debate on the decarbonisation of ocean-based industries as an extension of global net-zero commitments in the Paris Agreement. But this can only be done through strong carbon accounting. The Greenhouse Gas Protocol organises emissions into Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3, the last of which also includes a value chain category (such as fuel production, shipbuilding and logistics) which has a special role in maritime industries. Climate commitments in shipping and ocean industries will be mere aspirations unless proper monitoring and reporting of these emissions is established. Enhancing transparency and accountability in shipping emissions is thus a key activity to transform international commitments into action.

To curb the increasing climate threats, Pakistan has embarked on coming up with governance structures to preserve its marine resources. National Climate Change Policy (2021), which focuses on coastal protection, whereas Blue Economy Policy tends to support sustainable maritime development. The Marine Protected Areas at Astola Island and the restoration of mangroves in the Indus Delta, facilitated by the partnership of state and private entities, are a step in the right direction. Another option under consideration by country is blue carbon financing, such as the Delta Blue Carbon project, which intends to produce carbon credits and to improve coastal resilience and fisheries.

Nevertheless, there are still major challenges, such as poor enforcement, lack of inter-agency coordination and gaps in the process of incorporating climate science into planning. To improve ocean governance, they must reform harmful subsidies, extend protected zones and engage coastal communities in decision-making. Conclusively, although Pakistan has made encouraging moves so far, each and every scale-up of the carbon credit mechanisms and enhanced institutional capacity are essential in developing a sustainable blue economy. 

Ms. Ayesha Ibad is Research Officer and Associate Editor of Maritime Watch Magazine at National Institute of Maritime Affairs-Karachi. She is also a MS Scholar in Environmental Sciences at Bahria University Karachi Campus. The views expressed in this article are her own.